Project: Wellington Resilience Program - business case.

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Project: Wellington Resilience Program - business case.

The Wellington regional resilience project is an initiative to prepare a business case for significantly improving the resilience of Wellington lifeline services to natural hazards, to be presented to Treasury. The project investigates the expected economic impact resulting from damage to lifeline services from Wellington Fault earthquake, if it were to occur tomorrow. Further, it explores the benefit-cost of programmes to improve lifeline resilience and reduce the economic impacts.

A key component of the project is to create time stamped network service outage maps for various lifeline networks that could potentially be damaged in the event of the earthquake.  This requires a better understanding of the vulnerability of individual components in the network, how a spatially distributed network operates and what it takes to restore the service in terms of resources and availability of other lifeline services that it is dependent on. The outage maps show estimated levels of service available across the region immediately following the earthquake and how service levels change in time as full service is restored across the region.

“Post Disaster Cities (PDC)” research programme has supported the project by modelling network service outages by collectively looking at the damage to the individual components within the network, the restoration strategies including the interdependencies on other lifelines for recovery. In this process, the network models were created within Riskscape from data provided by lifelines and the fragility functions for each sector were used to quantify damage to lifeline components.

The outage maps are an essential input to the economic model (MERIT, Modelling the Economic Resilience of Infrastructure Tool, developed in conjunction with Market Economics and Resilient Organisations), which also accounts for population and business responses to infrastructure outages. Thereby, PDC acts as an interface between Riskscape and MERIT.